CERAWeek 2026: Oil, Gas, and LNG Market Outlook

Oil Market: Supply Disruption from Iran War

The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed 4.5-5 million barrels per day of oil from the market.
Estimates suggest this could double to 8-10 million barrels per day by mid-April, becoming the largest loss of crude supply in history.
Crude prices surged around 40%, at one point approaching $120/barrel.
Daniel Yergin: “We’re looking at the biggest disruption in world oil in history.”

Sources: CNBC, Shale24

Oil Price Outlook

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth: the disruption is not yet “fully priced in” to the futures market; the market is trading on “scant information” and “perception.”
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance: “The floor probably has to rise, and the slope of the curve is probably going to increase.” Believes the conflict will raise the baseline price of oil even after the war ends.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne: “If this crisis lasts more than three or four months it becomes a systemic problem for the world.”
What were headwinds in the industry a month prior have become tailwinds (Lance).

Sources: CNBC, World Oil, Fortune

Exploration Renaissance

Global energy companies are refocusing on exploration after years of underinvestment.
Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub: the industry has been replacing less than 25% of its annual production, down from 5x+ annual replacement during the 1950s-1970s.
Production in the Permian Basin is expected to plateau while energy demand keeps growing.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth: reviving exploration is a focus.
Rebuilding reserves through acquisitions (a popular recent strategy) will be challenging after the massive deals of recent years.
In recent years, the shale revolution and growth of renewables raised doubts about long-term oil demand; many companies chose dividends and buybacks over exploration.
The shift back to exploration is driven by declining reserves and plateauing shale production.

Sources: CCarbon, Kaieteur News, Reuters/Investing.com, OilPrice.com

US Shale Outlook

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance is betting on conventional oil as US shale growth plateaus.
ConocoPhillips remains focused on long-cycle investments, including Alaska developments and LNG expansion.

Sources: Hart Energy

OPEC+ Production

Eight OPEC+ countries decided on March 1 to resume unwinding 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary adjustments.
Production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day agreed.
Saudi Arabia’s target for April 2026: 10.2 mb/d (+62 kb/d increment).
However, Gulf Arab producers have subsequently cut output because they cannot export through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources: OPEC, Enerdata

Natural Gas Market

AI and Data Center Demand

Natural gas is positioned as the primary fuel source for surging data center and AI power demand.
Williams CEO Chad Zamarin: natural gas is a “strategic advantage for America.”
Energy Secretary Wright: “America’s superpower is natural gas.”
More than 100 GW of gas generation was awarded globally in 2025.
Natural gas can provide scalable, dispatchable energy, including on-site solutions that reduce reliance on constrained grid infrastructure.

Sources: Williams Companies, World Oil, AGA

Infrastructure Bottlenecks

Infrastructure, not resource availability, is the primary constraint for US natural gas and LNG exports.
Pipeline bottlenecks and permitting delays limit the movement of natural gas to key demand centers.
Permitting reform is cited as critical: faster permitting and timely buildout of pipelines and power projects help match supply with demand.
American infrastructure “simply hasn’t kept up” with demand surging from AI, data centers, and manufacturing.
Behind-the-meter solutions (bringing power directly on-site) can bypass grid constraints and reduce wait times that stretch for years with new transmission.

Sources: Williams Companies, Marcellus Drilling News, Reel Financial

LNG Market

US LNG Milestones

10-year anniversary of first US LNG export cargo (February 2016 from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass).
Over 18 Bcf/day of new LNG export permits approved in the last 13 months.
That permitted volume alone would make the US by far the world’s largest natural gas exporter.
In 2025, the US became the first country to export over 100 million metric tons of LNG.

Sources: EIA, World Oil

New LNG Capacity

Golden Pass LNG (upper Texas coast): startup operations began in December; nearing first export cargo.
Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Train 5: reached full capacity, boosting LNG exports.
New production capacity slated from the US, Qatar, Australia, Mexico, and Africa in 2026, including:
- 8 million tons from Qatar’s North Field Expansion project
- 10.4 million tons from the Golden Pass LNG project in Texas

Sources: Marcellus Drilling News, PGJ Online

LNG and the Iran Crisis

20% of global LNG supply disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Asian buyers “severely” affected by LNG disruption; US could benefit as alternative supplier.
Cheniere CEO Jack Fusco is answering “calls of help” from Asia as a potential supply crisis unfolds.
Qatar’s LNG operations disrupted by the geopolitical events.

Sources: The National, Fortune

Pre-Crisis Supply Outlook

Prior to the Iran crisis, the global LNG market was headed for a supply glut, with significant new capacity coming online.
The crisis has fundamentally changed the market outlook from potential oversupply to acute shortage risk.

Sources: Energy Now

Power Demand and Grid

Data Center Power Demand

Data centers’ power demand could reach 24 GW by 2031 (ERCOT estimate for Texas alone).
Hyperscalers asked ERCOT if they could pull a combined 226 GW from the grid, far exceeding historical peak demand.
Data centers consumed 4.4% of total US electricity in 2023; projected to account for 6.7-12% by 2028 (DOE data).
By 2028, US peak electricity supply will fall short of peak demand; by 2033, that shortfall is projected at 175 GW and growing.

Sources: Houston Public Media, Inspenet

Grid Management

Grid operators told data center developers to “get more flexible”: throttle consumption during peak hours or face shutdowns.
Wind and solar supplied roughly 36% of demand in Texas’ ERCOT market in the first nine months of 2025.
Texas PUC chair Thomas Gleeson: figuring out how many large users can plug into the grid is now the priority over market redesign.

Sources: Houston Public Media, E&E News / Politico

Europe Energy Outlook

Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned that energy shortages (gasoline, diesel) could hit Europe as early as April 2026.
Europe’s problem is its lack of preparation: “we are more in reaction mode.”
Sawan: Europe needs strategies that “actually look five, 10 years out and build resilience from now.”

Sources: CNBC, Shale24

Oil Market: Supply Disruption from Iran War

The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed 4.5-5 million barrels per day of oil from the market.
Estimates suggest this could double to 8-10 million barrels per day by mid-April, becoming the largest loss of crude supply in history.
Crude prices surged around 40%, at one point approaching $120/barrel.
Daniel Yergin: “We’re looking at the biggest disruption in world oil in history.”

Sources: CNBC, Shale24

Oil Price Outlook

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth: the disruption is not yet “fully priced in” to the futures market; the market is trading on “scant information” and “perception.”
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance: “The floor probably has to rise, and the slope of the curve is probably going to increase.” Believes the conflict will raise the baseline price of oil even after the war ends.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne: “If this crisis lasts more than three or four months it becomes a systemic problem for the world.”
What were headwinds in the industry a month prior have become tailwinds (Lance).

Sources: CNBC, World Oil, Fortune

Exploration Renaissance

Global energy companies are refocusing on exploration after years of underinvestment.
Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub: the industry has been replacing less than 25% of its annual production, down from 5x+ annual replacement during the 1950s-1970s.
Production in the Permian Basin is expected to plateau while energy demand keeps growing.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth: reviving exploration is a focus.
Rebuilding reserves through acquisitions (a popular recent strategy) will be challenging after the massive deals of recent years.
In recent years, the shale revolution and growth of renewables raised doubts about long-term oil demand; many companies chose dividends and buybacks over exploration.
The shift back to exploration is driven by declining reserves and plateauing shale production.

Sources: CCarbon, Kaieteur News, Reuters/Investing.com, OilPrice.com

US Shale Outlook

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance is betting on conventional oil as US shale growth plateaus.
ConocoPhillips remains focused on long-cycle investments, including Alaska developments and LNG expansion.

Sources: Hart Energy

OPEC+ Production

Eight OPEC+ countries decided on March 1 to resume unwinding 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary adjustments.
Production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day agreed.
Saudi Arabia’s target for April 2026: 10.2 mb/d (+62 kb/d increment).
However, Gulf Arab producers have subsequently cut output because they cannot export through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources: OPEC, Enerdata

Natural Gas Market

AI and Data Center Demand

Natural gas is positioned as the primary fuel source for surging data center and AI power demand.
Williams CEO Chad Zamarin: natural gas is a “strategic advantage for America.”
Energy Secretary Wright: “America’s superpower is natural gas.”
More than 100 GW of gas generation was awarded globally in 2025.
Natural gas can provide scalable, dispatchable energy, including on-site solutions that reduce reliance on constrained grid infrastructure.

Sources: Williams Companies, World Oil, AGA

Infrastructure Bottlenecks

Infrastructure, not resource availability, is the primary constraint for US natural gas and LNG exports.
Pipeline bottlenecks and permitting delays limit the movement of natural gas to key demand centers.
Permitting reform is cited as critical: faster permitting and timely buildout of pipelines and power projects help match supply with demand.
American infrastructure “simply hasn’t kept up” with demand surging from AI, data centers, and manufacturing.
Behind-the-meter solutions (bringing power directly on-site) can bypass grid constraints and reduce wait times that stretch for years with new transmission.

Sources: Williams Companies, Marcellus Drilling News, Reel Financial

LNG Market

US LNG Milestones

10-year anniversary of first US LNG export cargo (February 2016 from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass).
Over 18 Bcf/day of new LNG export permits approved in the last 13 months.
That permitted volume alone would make the US by far the world’s largest natural gas exporter.
In 2025, the US became the first country to export over 100 million metric tons of LNG.

Sources: EIA, World Oil

New LNG Capacity

Golden Pass LNG (upper Texas coast): startup operations began in December; nearing first export cargo.
Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Train 5: reached full capacity, boosting LNG exports.
New production capacity slated from the US, Qatar, Australia, Mexico, and Africa in 2026, including:
- 8 million tons from Qatar’s North Field Expansion project
- 10.4 million tons from the Golden Pass LNG project in Texas

Sources: Marcellus Drilling News, PGJ Online

LNG and the Iran Crisis

20% of global LNG supply disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Asian buyers “severely” affected by LNG disruption; US could benefit as alternative supplier.
Cheniere CEO Jack Fusco is answering “calls of help” from Asia as a potential supply crisis unfolds.
Qatar’s LNG operations disrupted by the geopolitical events.

Sources: The National, Fortune

Pre-Crisis Supply Outlook

Prior to the Iran crisis, the global LNG market was headed for a supply glut, with significant new capacity coming online.
The crisis has fundamentally changed the market outlook from potential oversupply to acute shortage risk.

Sources: Energy Now

Power Demand and Grid

Data Center Power Demand

Data centers’ power demand could reach 24 GW by 2031 (ERCOT estimate for Texas alone).
Hyperscalers asked ERCOT if they could pull a combined 226 GW from the grid, far exceeding historical peak demand.
Data centers consumed 4.4% of total US electricity in 2023; projected to account for 6.7-12% by 2028 (DOE data).
By 2028, US peak electricity supply will fall short of peak demand; by 2033, that shortfall is projected at 175 GW and growing.

Sources: Houston Public Media, Inspenet

Grid Management

Grid operators told data center developers to “get more flexible”: throttle consumption during peak hours or face shutdowns.
Wind and solar supplied roughly 36% of demand in Texas’ ERCOT market in the first nine months of 2025.
Texas PUC chair Thomas Gleeson: figuring out how many large users can plug into the grid is now the priority over market redesign.

Sources: Houston Public Media, E&E News / Politico

Europe Energy Outlook

Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned that energy shortages (gasoline, diesel) could hit Europe as early as April 2026.
Europe’s problem is its lack of preparation: “we are more in reaction mode.”
Sawan: Europe needs strategies that “actually look five, 10 years out and build resilience from now.”

Sources: CNBC, Shale24