Summary

As of mid-April, there is still no Senate draft text for the SPEED Act. The House-passed version (221-196, December 2025) awaits a Senate counterpart. Senate Democrats reopened negotiations in early March and Sen. Hickenlooper said he expected a deal “in the first quarter, maybe even sooner.” Q1 is now closed. The ~8-week window we flagged in Episode 2 (running through early May) has roughly two weeks left before midterm politics dominate. Transmission infrastructure and Trump’s wind/solar permit revocation authority remain the unresolved sticking points.

Status Snapshot

• House bill (HR 4776): Passed 221-196 on Dec 18, 2025
• Senate: No draft text yet
• Negotiations: Reopened early March 2026 (Dems engaged)
• Window: ~8 weeks through early May - approximately 2 weeks remain
• Key blockers:
  • Transmission provisions (Dems want broader transmission authority; Rs want state veto)
  • Trump’s asserted authority to revoke existing wind/solar permits
  • 60-vote threshold
• Public optimism low: no concrete text despite “first quarter” Hickenlooper commitment that did not materialize

What’s Actually Happening

Staff-level negotiation continues. NEPA scope reduction and project timeline standardization are near-consensus; transmission siting authority is not. The political calendar is unforgiving - congressional summer recess, then late-September fiscal cliffs, then midterm campaigning. Practical legislative window for a permitting deal this Congress is narrow.

Sources:

• House Passes SPEED Act, Advancing Federal Permitting Reform - AOGR
• Bipartisan Permitting Deal Passes House, Senate Up Next with Speed Bumps Ahead - Brownstein
• The Status of Federal Permitting Reform - Arnold & Porter
• What’s in the SPEED Act? - Bipartisan Policy Center
• House passes SPEED Act, a first step toward broader permitting reform - Latitude Media
• SPEED Act & Permitting Reform: 2026 Legislative Outlook - IndexBox

Conclusions

Permitting reform is the binding constraint for most of the energy infrastructure buildout the other research docs describe. Without it:

• Major transmission lines stuck in 10+ year review cycles
• Grid-connected data centers face multi-year interconnection waits
• Hydrogen pipeline buildout frozen
• New nuclear (AP1000 and SMR) review timelines unchanged

With it (in the SPEED Act form):

• NEPA review scope reduced
• Standardized timelines for major federal actions
• Limited judicial review
• Faster baseline for any federally-permitted infrastructure

The hyperscaler White House pledge (March 4) to fund grid upgrades is partially contingent on permitting reform actually enabling those upgrades to get built. Without SPEED, hyperscaler checks can’t clear into physical transmission lines.

Our Thinking

The chance of SPEED Act passage before midterms, which Episode 2 had cautiously nudged upward, now looks lower without a Senate draft. The optimistic case depends on a specific scenario: a reduced-scope Senate text (NEPA only, no transmission) that passes 60-40 by mid-May. That is possible but narrow.

The pessimistic case is that permitting reform slides to 2027 after midterms. If Democrats retake either chamber, a compromise version gets harder. If Republicans hold both with similar margins, the push might return - but two years of delay is expensive given the AI power urgency.

The structural workaround is continued behind-the-meter expansion. Every 500 MW BTM project is effectively a permitting-reform hedge: it bypasses the slow federal-state transmission review process. The longer SPEED languishes, the more BTM wins on the margin.

Watch

• Any Senate committee draft text release (most important signal)
• Specific amendments around transmission authority
• Sen. Manchin (if re-engaged) or Hickenlooper, Carper replacement positions
• Chamber of Commerce / API / NAM lobbying cadence
• Federal Register: new NEPA-related rulemaking that could be workaround path (categorical exclusions)