Summary

OPEC+ reconfirmed a 206k bbl/day output increase for May, same magnitude as April. Saudi Arabia and Russia each add 62k bbl/day; Iraq 26k, UAE 18k, Kuwait 16k, Kazakhstan 10k, Algeria 6k, Oman 5k. As with April, the increase is symbolic against the 4.5-10M bbl/day Hormuz disruption. Meanwhile, Venture Global reached FID on CP2 Phase 2 - the first US LNG export project sanctioned in 2026 - adding up to 20 MTPA with 36 modular trains. The DOE also authorized a 13% capacity increase at Venture Global’s Plaquemines terminal in mid-March.

OPEC+ May 2026 Decision

• Total: 206k bbl/day increase for May (same as April)
• Signal: second step unwinding 1.65M bbl/day of voluntary cuts from 2023
• Distribution:
  • Saudi Arabia: +62k
  • Russia: +62k
  • Iraq: +26k
  • UAE: +18k
  • Kuwait: +16k
  • Kazakhstan: +10k
  • Algeria: +6k
  • Oman: +5k
• Context: less than 2% of supply disrupted by Hormuz blockade
• Signaled intent: ready to raise further once strait reopens

US LNG Expansion

• Venture Global CP2 Phase 2: FID reached - first US LNG project sanctioned in 2026
  • 20 MTPA additional capacity
  • 36 modular trains
  • Location: Cameron Parish, LA
• Venture Global Plaquemines (LA): DOE approved 13% capacity increase in mid-March, adding 450 MMcf/day
• March 2026 Louisiana LNG exports: +1.8M metric tons vs March 2025 (“panic buying” as Europe/Asia scrambled for cargoes)
• Cheniere: ~45 MTPA in operation, 10+ MTPA under construction
• Venture Global 2025 revenue: $13.8B (+177% vs private-year estimates), adjusted EBITDA $6.3B

Sources:

• OPEC+ agrees 206 kb/d crude oil output raise amid Middle East supply disruptions - Enerdata
• OPEC+ agrees to hike oil output, warns of slow recovery - Al Jazeera
• OPEC Decides to Boost Production in May - Rigzone
• Venture Global Poised to Take U.S. LNG Export Crown After FID on CP2 Phase 2 - NGI
• U.S. LNG exports up again in March on global panic buying - American Press
• Cheniere Investor Relations
• Sizing Up the Next Wave of U.S. LNG Export Projects - ETF Trends

Conclusions

OPEC+ has preserved flexibility by keeping hike increments small. The 206k-bbl-per-month cadence is essentially a “we have capacity, when the market can receive it we will use it” signal. Gulf producers still cannot physically ship through a closed / blockaded strait. The balance is preserved in the ground for now.

Venture Global’s CP2 Phase 2 FID, combined with the Plaquemines 13% expansion and Cheniere’s operating capacity, positions the US to become the single largest LNG supplier globally for the remainder of the decade. Qatar’s 17% capacity loss has cleared the field.

Our Thinking

The US LNG expansion is the opposite side of the Qatar damage coin. Every cargo Qatar can’t ship is a cargo US exporters can. The long-term force majeure declarations by QatarEnergy on contracts with China, South Korea, Italy, and Belgium create persistent spot-market demand that US terminals will absorb.

Venture Global is emerging as the faster-growth challenger to Cheniere. The CP2 Phase 2 FID being the first 2026 sanctioned project means Venture Global is effectively pacing the US industry. Their 36-modular-train construction approach shortens build-out timelines vs. traditional bespoke designs.

For our story: US LNG is the narrative through-line connecting the Hormuz shock to the AI Hunger. Qatar’s loss → higher US LNG margins → more capital for Gulf Coast / Texas gas infrastructure → cheaper feedstock for BTM gas plants at Texas data centers. The flywheel strengthens.

Watch

• Venture Global CP2 Phase 2 construction milestones (modular trains)
• Next US LNG FID candidate (NextDecade Rio Grande 4? Sempra Port Arthur 2?)
• Asian LNG purchase agreement terminations (Qatar force majeure ripple effects)
• OPEC+ June / July decision (acceleration or pause)
• Iranian oil storage at ports (fuller tanks = shutdown pressure)
• Russia-India discounting dynamics post-waiver expiration