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Supporting note · AI x Energy

ERCOT Queue Hits 410 GW of Large Load Requests

Texas interconnection queue now tracks 410 GW of large-load requests, 87% from data centers, a 4.7x multiple of current peak demand. SB-6 rulemaking will determine whether projects connect to the grid or self-generate behind-the-meter.

Apr 19, 2026 · 3 min read

Summary

ERCOT is now tracking approximately 410 GW of large-load interconnection requests, of which about 87% come from data centers, many tied to AI infrastructure. That is a staggering jump from the 225 requests we tracked in Episode 2 and up from the 87 GW peak demand projection for 2025. The Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) advanced draft SB-6 interconnection rules on March 12, and ERCOT hopes to approve its “Batch Zero” admission criteria by June 2026, with the first batch study beginning late summer.

Queue Scale

  • ~410 GW of large-load interconnection requests (March 2026 data)
  • 87% from data centers
  • ERCOT’s all-time peak demand: ~87 GW (2025)
  • Internal projection: 138 GW peak by 2030
  • The queue is now ~4.7x current peak demand

That ratio is physically implausible - Texas cannot build 410 GW of generation in five years - but it reflects developer optionality: hyperscalers and co-lo developers file at every plausible site to preserve flexibility.

SB-6 Implementation Status

  • March 12, 2026: PUCT voted to publish draft rule 16 TAC §25.194 - interconnection standards for loads ≥75 MW
  • Draft rule imposes substantial financial obligations and disclosure requirements on data center and large-load customers
  • Work tracks: interconnection standards, net-metering for co-location, large load forecasting, demand reduction, transmission cost allocation
  • All tracks expected to finalize by end-2026
  • ERCOT targets approval of “Batch Zero” admission criteria by June 2026
  • First Batch Zero study likely late summer 2026
  • 75+ MW loads must curtail during emergencies (continues from Episode 2)

Characters in Early Planning

Google, Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, and CenterPoint remain in early ERCOT planning conversations. Galaxy Digital received an ERCOT approval for a 1.6 GW data center site (“Helios”), one of the first Batch Zero-category projects.

Sources:

Conclusions

The 410 GW figure is the most extreme data point in this cycle. Even if 80% of it is speculative optionality, the actionable residual (80 GW) is larger than ERCOT’s entire peak demand today. Texas is being asked to double its grid inside this decade.

The June 2026 Batch Zero deadline is the bottleneck. Until ERCOT has admission criteria, no new projects can enter the study queue. The Texas Administrative Code §25.194 rulemaking is the gatekeeper - how the PUCT writes “substantial financial obligations” will determine which projects file for grid connection versus which just go behind-the-meter.

Our Thinking

SB-6 is effectively a BTM accelerator. By imposing costs and curtailment on grid-connected large loads while exempting on-site generation, Texas is nudging hyperscalers to self-generate. This is by design: it protects existing ratepayers while still letting data centers build in Texas. The OEMs know this - GE Vernova’s 7-turbine order for Microsoft/Chevron Pecos is part of the same flywheel.

The 410 GW queue is also a macro signal. If even 25% materializes as real construction by 2030, it would require 100 GW of new Texas generation in ~5 years. ERCOT can do this only with fast-build gas CCGTs (plus batteries, plus already-permitted solar). It cannot do this with new nuclear or new long-distance transmission.

Watch

  • June 2026 - Batch Zero admission criteria approval
  • Late summer 2026 - first Batch Zero study begins
  • Final SB-6 rule language (financial obligations magnitude)
  • Second and third gigawatt-plus ERCOT approvals (after Galaxy Helios)
  • ERCOT capacity auction signals for 2027-2030
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Supporting note · AI x Energy

ERCOT Queue Hits 410 GW of Large Load Requests

Texas interconnection queue now tracks 410 GW of large-load requests, 87% from data centers, a 4.7x multiple of current peak demand. SB-6 rulemaking will determine whether projects connect to the grid or self-generate behind-the-meter.

Apr 19, 2026 · 3 min read

Summary

ERCOT is now tracking approximately 410 GW of large-load interconnection requests, of which about 87% come from data centers, many tied to AI infrastructure. That is a staggering jump from the 225 requests we tracked in Episode 2 and up from the 87 GW peak demand projection for 2025. The Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) advanced draft SB-6 interconnection rules on March 12, and ERCOT hopes to approve its “Batch Zero” admission criteria by June 2026, with the first batch study beginning late summer.

Queue Scale

That ratio is physically implausible - Texas cannot build 410 GW of generation in five years - but it reflects developer optionality: hyperscalers and co-lo developers file at every plausible site to preserve flexibility.

SB-6 Implementation Status

Characters in Early Planning

Google, Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, and CenterPoint remain in early ERCOT planning conversations. Galaxy Digital received an ERCOT approval for a 1.6 GW data center site (“Helios”), one of the first Batch Zero-category projects.

Sources:

Conclusions

The 410 GW figure is the most extreme data point in this cycle. Even if 80% of it is speculative optionality, the actionable residual (80 GW) is larger than ERCOT’s entire peak demand today. Texas is being asked to double its grid inside this decade.

The June 2026 Batch Zero deadline is the bottleneck. Until ERCOT has admission criteria, no new projects can enter the study queue. The Texas Administrative Code §25.194 rulemaking is the gatekeeper - how the PUCT writes “substantial financial obligations” will determine which projects file for grid connection versus which just go behind-the-meter.

Our Thinking

SB-6 is effectively a BTM accelerator. By imposing costs and curtailment on grid-connected large loads while exempting on-site generation, Texas is nudging hyperscalers to self-generate. This is by design: it protects existing ratepayers while still letting data centers build in Texas. The OEMs know this - GE Vernova’s 7-turbine order for Microsoft/Chevron Pecos is part of the same flywheel.

The 410 GW queue is also a macro signal. If even 25% materializes as real construction by 2030, it would require 100 GW of new Texas generation in ~5 years. ERCOT can do this only with fast-build gas CCGTs (plus batteries, plus already-permitted solar). It cannot do this with new nuclear or new long-distance transmission.

Watch