Summary
Shell CEO Sawan’s April warning has come true. Italian airports began rationing jet fuel in the first week of April. Jet fuel prices surged 95% since the conflict began. Qatar’s Ras Laffan (world’s largest LNG facility) is offline with force majeure notices. Dutch and German gas storage critically low at under 25%.
Jet Fuel Rationing Begins
European airports have imposed refueling restrictions due to jet fuel shortages. Airlines are preemptively canceling flights.
- Bologna, Milan Linate, Treviso, and Venice airports imposed “limited” fuel supplies
- Short-haul flights restricted to 2,000 litres of fuel
- Restrictions in effect through at least April 9
- Jet fuel prices up 95% since the US/Israel launched strikes on Iran (February 28)
Sources:
- How serious will the jet fuel crisis in Europe become? - Euronews
- Europe Energy Crisis: Italian Airports Begin Rationing Jet Fuel - Breitbart
LNG Supply Collapse
The LNG dimension is severe:
- Qatar stopped production at Ras Laffan, the world’s biggest LNG liquefaction facility, and issued force majeure notices
- Qatar and the UAE supplied more than 20% of global LNG; both now offline
- TTF (European gas benchmark) hit $58.42/MWh, up from $37/MWh one week prior
- German and French storage facilities less than 25% full
- Netherlands storage at critically low levels, far below historical minimums
Sources:
- 2026 Iran war fuel crisis - Wikipedia
- Europe’s Energy Crisis 2026: Price Shock, Storage Woes - IndexBox
- Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance - Ember
Global Fuel Rationing
The crisis extends beyond Europe. According to Time:
- Parts of Africa already face supply disruptions
- Latin America expected to face shortages within weeks if Hormuz stays closed
- Countries worldwide reviving emergency measures and strategic reserve releases
Sources:
Our Thinking
This is the moment where the Hormuz crisis becomes tangible for ordinary Europeans. Airport fuel rationing is visible, disruptive, and politically potent. The LNG dimension is worse than the crude oil dimension for Europe: Qatar offline means Europe lost its primary alternative to Russian gas. Dutch and German storage below 25% in April means they cannot coast through to summer.
The ceasefire (April 8) offers hope, but even if Hormuz reopens immediately, physical supply chains take weeks to restore. The jet fuel crisis will persist through April regardless. If the ceasefire collapses, Europe faces a summer of rationing.
This validates the earlier case that Europe faces energy rationing in 2026.
Watch
- Italian airport fuel situation through April 10-15
- TTF gas price trajectory
- Whether ceasefire leads to actual Qatari LNG restart
- European emergency reserve releases
- Flight cancellations across European carriers