Summary
ERCOT’s large load queue nearly quadrupled in a single year, with 225 new interconnection requests overwhelming a system built for 40-50 projects. Peak demand projected to rise from 87 GW (2025) to 138 GW by 2030. ERCOT is moving to batch-based transmission studies and new SB-6 rules require large loads (75+ MW) to curtail during emergencies.
Queue Overload
- 225 new interconnection requests received last year (system designed for 40-50)
- Queue nearly quadrupled in a single year
- Major corporate stakeholders in early conversations: Google, Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, CenterPoint
- ERCOT moving from individual to batch-based transmission studies (“Batch Zero”)
Sources:
- ERCOT’s large load queue has nearly quadrupled in a single year - Latitude Media
- As Data Centers Jostle to Get on Texas’ Grid, ERCOT Promises New Rules - Inside Climate News
- ERCOT to update planning process for connecting data centers - Houston Public Media
Demand Projections
- Texas peak demand: 87 GW (2025) to 138 GW by 2030 (59% increase)
- Data center load demand surging toward 80 GW by 2030
- Previous figure from Episode 1: 24 GW by 2031 (from ERCOT’s Bill Blevins). The new 80 GW figure reflects broader large-load category including crypto and industrial.
Sources:
- Texas Energy Policy Updates: ERCOT, PUCT, Data Centers - Sierra Club
New Regulatory Framework
Senate Bill 6 (SB-6), effective 2026:
- Facilities drawing more than 75 MW from the grid must curtail load during emergency events
- This is a grid reliability measure, not a deterrent, but it increases the attractiveness of behind-the-meter solutions (which are exempt from grid curtailment orders)
Sources:
- What Texas Data Centers Need to Know About Energy Storage - Convergent Energy
Grid Planning Reality Check
A Paces white paper argues that the grid is “planning for data centers that will never exist,” noting that many interconnection requests are speculative. Transmission investment should align with development reality, not raw queue numbers. This suggests the 80 GW figure likely overstates what will actually connect.
Sources:
Our Thinking
The ERCOT queue quadrupling is both a demand signal and a planning crisis. The batch system is a necessary reform; evaluating 225 projects individually would take years. SB-6’s curtailment requirement for 75+ MW loads is a subtle but important push toward BTM. If your data center can be curtailed by ERCOT during emergencies, the reliability calculus shifts toward owning your own power plant.
The Paces critique is worth noting: not all of these 225 requests will materialize. But even if half do, Texas faces a buildout challenge unlike anything in its history. The 87 GW to 138 GW jump in five years is the equivalent of building another entire Texas grid on top of the existing one.
Watch
- ERCOT Batch Zero results (first batch study completion)
- SB-6 implementation and first curtailment events
- Which of the 225 queue requests proceed to interconnection agreement
- PUCT rulemaking on data center grid integration