Summary

The Hormuz crisis has deepened significantly since CERAWeek. The IEA now calls it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent crude peaked at $126/barrel. The US military began operations to reopen the strait on March 19. IEA warns April will be worse than March.

Timeline

• Pre-2026: Failed nuclear negotiations in Geneva. 12-day air conflict in 2025 between Iran, US, and Israel.
• Early March 2026: Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military bases, Israeli territory, and Gulf states. IRGC issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the strait.
• ~March 8, 2026: Brent crude surpassed $100/barrel for the first time in four years.
• March 19, 2026: United States Armed Forces began military campaign to open the strait.
• Late March: Tanker traffic dropped approximately 70%, then to near zero. Over 150 ships anchored outside the strait.
• Peak: Brent crude reached $126/barrel.
• April 1, 2026: IEA head Fatih Birol warns “the next month, April, will be much worse than March.”

Sources:

• 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis - Wikipedia
• Oil supply crunch will worsen in April, IEA warns - CNBC
• The Perilous Options in the Strait of Hormuz - US Naval Institute Proceedings, April 2026
• Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint - EIA

Supply Impact

• Approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply affected.
• Significant volumes of LNG also disrupted.
• Described as “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” by IEA head Fatih Birol.
• Oil prices surged faster than during any other conflict in recent history.
• Gulf Arab producers have cut output because they physically cannot export through the strait.

Sources:

• Here’s Why Oil Prices Are Surging and What a Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Mean - Motley Fool
• Oil Prices Surge Past $110 as Strait of Hormuz Blockade Triggers Global Supply Shock - Ad Hoc News

Economic Impact

• Dallas Fed analysis: closure has major implications for global economy.
• WEF identifies 9 commodities beyond oil impacted: LNG, petrochemicals, fertilizers, metals.
• UNCTAD report on implications for global trade and development.
• Countries “reviving” energy-crisis measures (strategic reserve releases, demand management, emergency coordination).
• Bloomberg graphics team modeling “how high could oil prices get” scenarios.

Sources:

• What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy - Dallas Fed
• Beyond oil: 9 commodities impacted by the Strait of Hormuz crisis - World Economic Forum
• Implications for Global Trade and Development - UNCTAD
• Iran War: How High Could Oil Prices Get with Strait of Hormuz Closure? - Bloomberg
• Countries ‘revive’ energy-crisis measures - Renewable AI

Our Thinking (2026-04-05)

The Hormuz crisis is no longer a shock; it is becoming structural. Three weeks in, with a US military campaign ongoing and no ceasefire in sight, this is shifting from “how long does it last” to “what does the world look like if it doesn’t resolve quickly.”

For our story, the Hormuz crisis amplifies every other sub-story:

• Gas turbine demand increases (energy security builds)
• Behind-the-meter becomes more urgent (energy independence at site level)
• Oil services companies benefit (exploration renaissance accelerated)
• LNG market flips from glut to shortage
• Policy pressure for permitting reform intensifies

The IEA warning that April is worse is the most significant new signal. Strategic reserve releases can buy time but not replace 20% of global crude supply. If this persists into May/June, the “systemic” threshold that TotalEnergies CEO Pouyanne warned about will be crossed.

Watch: US military progress on strait reopening, IEA monthly oil market reports, strategic reserve coordination, Indian economic indicators (most vulnerable major economy).