Summary

All three major gas turbine OEMs are at record backlogs with lead times stretching to 8 years. The combined cycle segment holds 70% market share in 2026. Manufacturing capacity is the binding constraint, not demand.

GE Vernova

• Booked 18 GW of turbine orders in Q4 2025 alone.
• Ended 2025 with an 80 GW backlog stretching to 2029.
• CEO Scott Strazik expects gas turbine reservations to be sold out through 2030 by end of 2026.
• Ramping production from 48 turbines/year to 20 GW annualized by mid-2026.
• Stretch target: 24 GW annualized by mid-2028 at two existing facilities.
• Built approximately 20 GW of gas orders in 2025, double the prior year.
• Secured 9 GW of slot reservation agreements for new turbines.

Sources:

• GE Vernova expects to end 2025 with an 80-GW gas turbine backlog that stretches into 2029 - Utility Dive
• GE Vernova Stock Falls, but 2026 Gas Orders and a $40 Billion Nuclear Plan Keep It in Focus - TS2 Tech

Siemens Energy

• Reports a €136 billion backlog, the largest in company history.
• Adding 61,000 sq ft to blade and vane manufacturing facility (announced December 2025).
• Targeting 70-80 heavy-duty gas turbines/year by 2026 (up from ~48 annually).

Sources:

• Gas Power’s Boom Sparks a Turbine Supply Crunch - Power Magazine

Mitsubishi Power (MHI)

• Plans to double manufacturing capacity over the next two years.
• Turbines ordered today will not be delivered until 2028-2030.
• Hydrogen-ready JAC turbines in production (50% H2 blend = 22% CO2 reduction, path to 100% by 2035).
• AI-powered turbine controls launching FY2026 (predictive analytics, rapid load adjustment).

Sources:

• Gas turbine manufacturers expand capacity, but order backlog could prove stubborn - Utility Dive

Market-Wide

• The three OEMs serve over 75% of projects under construction.
• Lead times extended to up to 8 years across all manufacturers.
• Combined cycle segment holds 70% market share in 2026.
• North America’s natural gas turbine market sees multi-year backlog persisting.
• Gas turbine supply constraints described as threatening grid reliability (RMI analysis).

Sources:

• North America’s Natural Gas Turbine Market Fired Up as Multi-Year Backlog Seen Persisting - Natural Gas Intelligence
• Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability - RMI
• The gas turbine bottleneck reshaping energy infrastructure - Primary VC

New Capacity Online

• Blackstone Energy Transition Partners brought the 694 MW Magnolia combined-cycle plant online in Louisiana. Hydrogen-capable.

Sources:

• Blackstone Brings 694-MW Magnolia Gas Plant Online in Louisiana - Pipeline & Gas Journal

Our Thinking (2026-04-05)

The supply crunch is the most important constraint in the gas turbine story right now. Demand is effectively unlimited (AI data centers, grid replacement, Hormuz-driven security builds), but OEM manufacturing is the ceiling. This means:

1. Turbine slot reservations become financial assets. Companies that secured slots early have a competitive advantage measured in years.
2. Modular and behind-the-meter solutions (Williams, Bloom) gain relative advantage because they use smaller equipment with shorter lead times.
3. The 8-year lead time creates a structural gap: demand exists now, supply arrives 2028-2030. What fills the gap? Existing fleet life extensions, fuel cells, and grid flexibility.
4. OEM pricing power is enormous. Expect margin expansion in GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and MHI earnings.

Watch: GE Vernova quarterly order announcements, Siemens Energy backlog updates, Mitsubishi capacity expansion timeline.