OPEC and OPEC+ structural integrity broke on May 1, 2026 with the UAE departure. Post 070 anchors the foundational event: nearly six decades of UAE membership ended, the country plans expansion from 3.4 to 5 mb/d by 2027 independently, and the move was framed officially as a "review of production policy and capacity" while reflecting long-running quota friction with Saudi Arabia and an independent foreign-policy posture.
On April 28-29 the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, ending nearly six decades of UAE participation in coordinated oil policy. The decision removes the UAE from production quotas and frees it to expand from 3.4 to 5 million barrels per day by 2027.
On May 3, the now-seven-member OPEC+ (without UAE) announced a 188k bpd output increase for June - the third symbolic hike since the Hormuz closure. Saudi Arabia's quota rose to 10.291 mb/d, far above actual production, which remains constrained by Iran's control of the strait.
On May 23, President Trump said a deal with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz has been "largely negotiated." Under the proposed 60-day framework, the US would lift its blockade and grant sanctions waivers; Iran would clear mines, reopen Hormuz toll-free, and enter nuclear negotiations. Iran disputes that the strait would leave its management.
The AI power buildout has moved from forecast to order book. The richest companies in the world are prepared to spend almost without limit. They have discovered that money cannot manufacture time.
OPEC and OPEC+ structural integrity broke on May 1, 2026 with the UAE departure. Post 070 anchors the foundational event: nearly six decades of UAE membership ended, the country plans expansion from 3.4 to 5 mb/d by 2027 independently, and the move was framed officially as a "review of production policy and capacity" while reflecting long-running quota friction with Saudi Arabia and an independent foreign-policy posture.
On April 28-29 the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, ending nearly six decades of UAE participation in coordinated oil policy. The decision removes the UAE from production quotas and frees it to expand from 3.4 to 5 million barrels per day by 2027.
On May 3, the now-seven-member OPEC+ (without UAE) announced a 188k bpd output increase for June - the third symbolic hike since the Hormuz closure. Saudi Arabia's quota rose to 10.291 mb/d, far above actual production, which remains constrained by Iran's control of the strait.
On May 23, President Trump said a deal with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz has been "largely negotiated." Under the proposed 60-day framework, the US would lift its blockade and grant sanctions waivers; Iran would clear mines, reopen Hormuz toll-free, and enter nuclear negotiations. Iran disputes that the strait would leave its management.
The AI power buildout has moved from forecast to order book. The richest companies in the world are prepared to spend almost without limit. They have discovered that money cannot manufacture time.